Israel: Olmert Primed For War Before A Pretext Came

At last Prime Minister Olmert admits what we all have known...

Taken from The Sydney Morning Heraldm March 10, 2007
By Conal Urquhart in Tel Aviv

PREPARATIONS for Israel's war in Lebanon last July were drawn up at least four months before two Israeli soldiers were kidnapped by Hezbollah in July, the Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, has admitted.

His submission to a commission of inquiry, leaked on Thursday, contradicted the impression at the time that Israel had been provoked into a battle for which it was ill-prepared.

Mr Olmert told the Winograd commission, a panel of judges investigating Israel's perceived defeat in the 34-day war, that he first discussed the possibility of war in January last year and asked to see military plans in March.

According to the Ha'aretz daily, which obtained details of Mr Olmert's testimony, the Prime Minister chose a strategy of air attacks on Lebanon and a limited ground operation to be implemented in the event of an abduction by Hezbollah, which had made several attempts to capture Israeli soldiers on the border since Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000.

Israeli commentators believed that Mr Olmert and his Defence Minister, Amir Peretz, took the opportunity of the kidnapping to show they could manage a war in spite of their limited military experience. But the outcome seemed to highlight their lack of experience, as well as deficiencies in Israel's military planning.

The commission's interim report is expected by the end of the month. Although the commission was appointed by the Government, Mr Olmert's continuation in office would be unlikely if its report criticises him.

One political analyst, Shmuel Sandler, said it seemed that people close to Mr Olmert had leaked his submission, made on February 1, in an attempt to increase his popularity. In an opinion poll published this week, only 3 per cent of Israeli voters said they would vote for Mr Olmert, while 72 per cent said he should resign.

Zalman Shoval, of the Likud party, said Mr Olmert's testimony cast his decisions in a worse light than before. "If he had prepared plans, then to any objective commentator, this makes the situation worse," he said.

"Why were the plans not carried out? It all also places a darker complexion on his decision to expand ground operations, which led to the loss of 33 more Israeli lives."

On July 12 Hezbollah fighters abducted Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev, Israeli reservists, in an incident on the Israel-Lebanon border. Israel then launched air strikes on southern Lebanon before attacking other areas. Hezbollah fired hundreds of rockets into Israel.

Mr Olmert said at the time that Israel went to war to force the return of the soldiers, eliminate Hezbollah's rocket supplies and push the militia north of the Litani River in southern Lebanon.

Israeli forces launched several ground operations which met strong resistance. It was difficult to move supplies and troops around the battlefield because of Hezbollah's anti-tank weapons.
After a final offensive in which Israel lost 33 soldiers, the Government agreed on a ceasefire without having achieved its objectives. In the fighting, 1200 Lebanese and 158 Israelis were killed. Of the dead almost 1000 Lebanese and 41 Israelis were civilians.